Section 1.4

Uniform Probabilities on Finite Spaces

Question 1.4.1

A committee of 4 people is to be chosen from a group of 10 people (6 men and 4 women).

  1. How many different committees of 4 people can be formed?

  2. How many of these committees consist of exactly 2 men and 2 women?

Since the order in which committee members are chosen doesn’t matter, we use combinations. We are choosing 4 people out of 10: \[ \begin{aligned} \binom{10}{4} &= \frac{10!}{4! \, 6!} \\ &= \frac{10 \times 9 \times 8 \times 7}{4 \times 3 \times 2 \times 1} \\ &= \frac{5040}{24} \\ &= 210 \end{aligned} \] Therefore, there are \(\boldsymbol{210}\) different possible committees.

We need to choose 2 men out of 6, and separately choose 2 women out of 4. By the multiplication principle, the number of committees with exactly 2 men and 2 women is \[ \binom{6}{2} \times \binom{4}{2} = 15 \times 9 = 90 \]

Therefore, there are \(\boldsymbol{90}\) committees consisting of exactly 2 men and 2 women.

Question 1.4.2

Suppose we roll eight fair six-sided dice.

  1. What is the probability that all eight dice show a 6?

  2. What is the probability that all eight dice show the same number?

By independence, the probability that all eight dice show a 6 is \[ \mathbb{P}(\text{all eight show six}) = \left(\frac{1}{6}\right)^8 = \frac{1}{1{,}679{,}616} \] Therefore, the probability that all eight dice show a 6 is \(\boldsymbol{\dfrac{1}{1{,}679{,}616}}\).

By additivity, summing over the six possible common values: \[ \begin{aligned} \mathbb{P}(\text{all eight show same}) &= \sum_{i=1}^{6} \mathbb{P}(\text{all eight show } i) \\ &= \sum_{i=1}^{6} \left(\frac{1}{6}\right)^8 \\ &= 6 \left(\frac{1}{6}\right)^8 \\ &= \left(\frac{1}{6}\right)^7 \\ &= \frac{1}{279{,}936} \end{aligned} \] Therefore, the probability that all eight dice show the same number is \(\boldsymbol{\dfrac{1}{279{,}936}}\).

Question 1.4.3

Suppose we repeatedly roll two fair six-sided dice, considering the sum of the two values showing each time. What is the probability that the first time the sum is exactly 7 is on the third roll?

The probability of getting a sum of 7 on any one roll is \[ \mathbb{P}(\text{sum} = 7) = \frac{6}{36} = \frac{1}{6} \] For the first sum of 7 to occur on the third roll, we need the first two rolls to not give a sum of 7, and the third roll to give a sum of 7. Since the rolls are independent, \[ \begin{aligned} \mathbb{P}(\text{first 7 on third roll}) &= \left(\frac{5}{6}\right)^2 \left(\frac{1}{6}\right) \\ &= \frac{25}{216} \end{aligned} \] Therefore, the probability that the first time the sum is exactly 7 is on the third roll is \(\boldsymbol{\dfrac{25}{216}}\).