Stat 406

Daniel J. McDonald

Last modified – 06 December 2023

\[ \DeclareMathOperator*{\argmin}{argmin} \DeclareMathOperator*{\argmax}{argmax} \DeclareMathOperator*{\minimize}{minimize} \DeclareMathOperator*{\maximize}{maximize} \DeclareMathOperator*{\find}{find} \DeclareMathOperator{\st}{subject\,\,to} \newcommand{\E}{E} \newcommand{\Expect}[1]{\E\left[ #1 \right]} \newcommand{\Var}[1]{\mathrm{Var}\left[ #1 \right]} \newcommand{\Cov}[2]{\mathrm{Cov}\left[#1,\ #2\right]} \newcommand{\given}{\ \vert\ } \newcommand{\X}{\mathbf{X}} \newcommand{\x}{\mathbf{x}} \newcommand{\y}{\mathbf{y}} \newcommand{\P}{\mathcal{P}} \newcommand{\R}{\mathbb{R}} \newcommand{\norm}[1]{\left\lVert #1 \right\rVert} \newcommand{\snorm}[1]{\lVert #1 \rVert} \newcommand{\tr}[1]{\mbox{tr}(#1)} \newcommand{\brt}{\widehat{\beta}^R_{s}} \newcommand{\brl}{\widehat{\beta}^R_{\lambda}} \newcommand{\bls}{\widehat{\beta}_{ols}} \newcommand{\blt}{\widehat{\beta}^L_{s}} \newcommand{\bll}{\widehat{\beta}^L_{\lambda}} \newcommand{\U}{\mathbf{U}} \newcommand{\D}{\mathbf{D}} \newcommand{\V}{\mathbf{V}} \]

(also in the Canvas announcement)

- Yes, there is lab as usual tomorrow. (But no Zoom OH)
- Homework 5 due tonight.
- Office hours next week:
- Monday 5-6pm on Zoom (use the link on Canvas, TA)
- Tuesday 3-4:30pm in ESB 4192 (me)
- Wednesday 10-11am in ESB 4192 (TA)
- Thursday 10-11am in ESB 3174 (me)
- Friday 2-3pm on Zoom (use the link on Canvas, TA)

Final Exam on Monday, December 18 from 12-2pm

- Effort score done as soon as possible
- HW 5, aiming for Friday Dec 15, but no guarantees
- Clickers and Labs should be done soon
- The Final is autograded
- It usually takes me a few days to get the final grades in
- Generally, no curves, no roundin’ up, etc.

- What is a model?
- How do we evaluate models?
- How do we decide which models to use?
- How do we improve models?

- Linear algebra (SVD, matrix multiplication, matrix properties, etc.)
- Optimization (derivitive + set to 0, gradient descent, Newton’s method, etc.)
- Probability (conditional probability, Bayes rule, etc.)
- Statistics (likelihood, MLE, confidence intervals, etc.)

- What is a statistical model?
- What is the goal of model selection?
- What is the difference between training and test error?
- What is overfitting?
- What is the bias-variance tradeoff?
- What is the difference between AIC / BIC / CV / Held-out validation?

- What do we mean by regression?
- What is the difference between linear and non-linear regression?
- What are linear smoothers and why do we care?
- What is feature creation?
- What is regularization?
- What is the difference between L1 and L2 regularization?

- What is classification? Bayes Rule?
- What are linear decision boundaries?
- Compare logistic regression to discriminant analysis.
- What are the positives and negatives of trees?
- What about loss functions? How do we measure performance?

- What is the difference between bagging and boosting?
- What is the point of the bootstrap?
- What is the difference between random forests and bagging?
- How do we understand Neural Networks?

- What is unsupervised learning?
- Can be used for feature creation / EDA.
- Understanding linear vs. non-linear methods.
- What does PCA / KPCA estimate?
- Positives and negatives of clustering procedures.

Currently at 18/139.

- True
- False

`lm(y ~ x, lambda = 1)`

`(crossprod(x)) + diag(ncol(x))) %*% crossprod(x, y)`

`solve(crossprod(x) + diag(ncol(x))) %*% crossprod(x, y)`

`glmnet(x, y, lambda = 1, alpha = 0)`

- True
- False

- It is a method for estimating the sampling distribution of a statistic.
- It is a method for estimating expected prediction error.
- It is a method for improving the performance of a classifier.
- It is a method for estimating the variance of a statistic.

- Koerner’s
- Sports Illustrated Clubhouse (formerly Biercraft)
- Brown’s Crafthouse
- Rain or Shine

- Daniel’s thoughts on stuff (grad school / undergrad school / life / etc.)
- Epidemiological forecasting
- Software for epidemiological forecasting
- Analysis of classical music
- Economic forecasting models

UBC Stat 406 - 2023